Does Election 2012 really come down to just 7 states?

Paul Brandhus, founder of the West Wing Report, has a piece up on The Week site arguing that this year’s presidential election hinges on seven swing states–Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.

Obama won all of those in 2008, Florida and Ohio most narrowly, by 3 and 4 points, respectively. However, as Mr. Brandhus notes, this is a very different environment, in large part because of the Recession. Unemployment rates are higher in three of those states–Colorado, Florida, and Nevada (where it’s over 12 percent). In Ohio and Iowa, they’re down slightly, and they’re unchanged in New Hampshire and Virginia.

One key factor will be minority voting. Brandhus notes Ron Brownstein’s analyses in National Journal, which I have linked to several times, that indicate the size of minority voter turnout will be critical (which may explain the R’s ferocious efforts to supress voter turnout). If Hispanics and African-Americans turn out in force in November, particularly in states like Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia, and they vote en masse for Obama, the share of the white vote he needs (and is likely to get) shrinks.

Later,

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: